Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Predict Lightning-Caused Forest Fires in Mounting Areas; Forecasting; Vol. 3, iss. 4
| Parent link: | Forecasting Vol. 3, iss. 4.— 2021.— [P. 695-715] |
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| Hlavní autor: | |
| Korporativní autor: | |
| Shrnutí: | Title screen Forest fires from lightnings create a tense situation in various regions of states with forested areas. It is noted that in mountainous areas this is especially important in view of the geophysical processes of lightning activity. The aim of the study is to develop a deterministic-probabilistic approach to predicting forest fire danger due to lightning activity in mountainous regions. To develop a mathematical model, the main provisions of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics, as well as the general theory of heat transfer, were used. The scientific novelty of the research is due to the complex use of probabilistic criteria and deterministic mathematical models of tree ignition by a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The paper presents probabilistic criteria for predicting forest fire danger, taking into account the lightning activity, meteorological data, and forest growth conditions, as well as deterministic mathematical models of ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by electric current of a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The work uses synthetic data on the discharge parameters and characteristics of the forest-covered area, which correspond to the forest fire situation in the Republic of Altay and the Republic of Buryatia (Russian Federation). The dependences of the probability for occurrence of forest fires on various parameters have been obtained. |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Vydáno: |
2021
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| Témata: | |
| On-line přístup: | https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3040043 |
| Médium: | Elektronický zdroj Kapitola |
| KOHA link: | https://koha.lib.tpu.ru/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=666628 |
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| 200 | 1 | |a Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Predict Lightning-Caused Forest Fires in Mounting Areas |f N. V. Baranovskiy | |
| 203 | |a Text |c electronic | ||
| 300 | |a Title screen | ||
| 320 | |a [References: 60 tit.] | ||
| 330 | |a Forest fires from lightnings create a tense situation in various regions of states with forested areas. It is noted that in mountainous areas this is especially important in view of the geophysical processes of lightning activity. The aim of the study is to develop a deterministic-probabilistic approach to predicting forest fire danger due to lightning activity in mountainous regions. To develop a mathematical model, the main provisions of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics, as well as the general theory of heat transfer, were used. The scientific novelty of the research is due to the complex use of probabilistic criteria and deterministic mathematical models of tree ignition by a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The paper presents probabilistic criteria for predicting forest fire danger, taking into account the lightning activity, meteorological data, and forest growth conditions, as well as deterministic mathematical models of ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by electric current of a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The work uses synthetic data on the discharge parameters and characteristics of the forest-covered area, which correspond to the forest fire situation in the Republic of Altay and the Republic of Buryatia (Russian Federation). The dependences of the probability for occurrence of forest fires on various parameters have been obtained. | ||
| 461 | |t Forecasting | ||
| 463 | |t Vol. 3, iss. 4 |v [P. 695-715] |d 2021 | ||
| 610 | 1 | |a труды учёных ТПУ | |
| 610 | 1 | |a электронный ресурс | |
| 610 | 1 | |a forest fire | |
| 610 | 1 | |a danger | |
| 610 | 1 | |a probability | |
| 610 | 1 | |a lightning | |
| 610 | 1 | |a deterministic | |
| 610 | 1 | |a probabilistic | |
| 610 | 1 | |a prediction | |
| 610 | 1 | |a mounting area | |
| 610 | 1 | |a лесные пожары | |
| 610 | 1 | |a опасность | |
| 610 | 1 | |a молния | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Baranovskiy |b N. V. |c specialist in electrical engineering |c Associate Professor of Tomsk Polytechnic University, Candidate of physical and mathematical sciences |f 1978- |g Nikolay Viktorovich |3 (RuTPU)RU\TPU\pers\34172 |9 17706 | |
| 712 | 0 | 2 | |a Национальный исследовательский Томский политехнический университет |b Инженерная школа энергетики |b Научно-образовательный центр И. Н. Бутакова (НОЦ И. Н. Бутакова) |3 (RuTPU)RU\TPU\col\23504 |
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| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3040043 |
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