Анализ и прогнозирование демографических процессов с использованием модели Ли-Картера

Анализ и прогнозирование демографических процессов с использованием модели Ли-Картера

Bibliographic Details
Parent link:Перспективы развития фундаментальных наук.— 2012.— [С. 548-550]
Main Author: Иганова А. В.
Other Authors: Марков А. А. Александр Сергеевич (научный руководитель)
Summary:Заглавие с экрана
Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in Russia Federation from 2010 to 2065. This research describes the basic method, published in 1992 by Lee and Carter for long-run forecasts of the level and age pattern of mortality, that based on a combination of statistical time series methods and a simple approach to dealing with the age distribution of mortality. The model describes the log of a time series of age-specific death rates as the sum of an independent of time age-specific component and another component that is the product of a time-varying parameter reflecting the general level of mortality. Age-specific component represents velocity of mortality variance at each age when the general level of mortality changes. The model is fit to historical data.
Language:Russian
Published: 2012
Series:Математика
Subjects:
электронный ресурс
труды учёных ТПУ
модель Ли-Картера
анализ
прогнозирование
демографические процессы
Online Access:http://www.lib.tpu.ru/fulltext/c/2012/C21/184.pdf
Format: Electronic Book Chapter
KOHA link:https://koha.lib.tpu.ru/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=238533

Similar Items

Similar Items