Анализ и прогнозирование демографических процессов с использованием модели Ли-Картера; Перспективы развития фундаментальных наук

Библиографические подробности
Источник:Перспективы развития фундаментальных наук.— 2012.— [С. 548-550]
Главный автор: Иганова А. В.
Другие авторы: Марков А. А. Александр Сергеевич (научный руководитель)
Примечания:Заглавие с экрана
Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in Russia Federation from 2010 to 2065. This research describes the basic method, published in 1992 by Lee and Carter for long-run forecasts of the level and age pattern of mortality, that based on a combination of statistical time series methods and a simple approach to dealing with the age distribution of mortality. The model describes the log of a time series of age-specific death rates as the sum of an independent of time age-specific component and another component that is the product of a time-varying parameter reflecting the general level of mortality. Age-specific component represents velocity of mortality variance at each age when the general level of mortality changes. The model is fit to historical data.
Язык:русский
Опубликовано: 2012
Серии:Математика
Предметы:
Online-ссылка:http://www.lib.tpu.ru/fulltext/c/2012/C21/184.pdf
Формат: Электронный ресурс Статья
Запись в KOHA:https://koha.lib.tpu.ru/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=238533
Описание
Объем:1 файл(662 Кб)
Примечания:Заглавие с экрана
Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in Russia Federation from 2010 to 2065. This research describes the basic method, published in 1992 by Lee and Carter for long-run forecasts of the level and age pattern of mortality, that based on a combination of statistical time series methods and a simple approach to dealing with the age distribution of mortality. The model describes the log of a time series of age-specific death rates as the sum of an independent of time age-specific component and another component that is the product of a time-varying parameter reflecting the general level of mortality. Age-specific component represents velocity of mortality variance at each age when the general level of mortality changes. The model is fit to historical data.