Анализ и прогнозирование демографических процессов с использованием модели Ли-Картера
| Parent link: | Перспективы развития фундаментальных наук=Prospects of fundamental sciences development: сборник научных трудов IX Международной конференция студентов и молодых ученых, г. Томск, 24-27 апреля 2012 г./ Национальный исследовательский Томский политехнический университет (ТПУ) ; ред. коллегия Е. А. Вайтулевич ; Г. А. Лямина ; Г. А. Воронова ; М. П. Никитич ; А. М. Лидер ; Ю. Р. Цой ; М. Е. Семенов. [С. 548-550].— , 2012 |
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| Summary: | Заглавие с экрана Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in Russia Federation from 2010 to 2065. This research describes the basic method, published in 1992 by Lee and Carter for long-run forecasts of the level and age pattern of mortality, that based on a combination of statistical time series methods and a simple approach to dealing with the age distribution of mortality. The model describes the log of a time series of age-specific death rates as the sum of an independent of time age-specific component and another component that is the product of a time-varying parameter reflecting the general level of mortality. Age-specific component represents velocity of mortality variance at each age when the general level of mortality changes. The model is fit to historical data. |
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2012
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| Series: | Математика |
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| Online Access: | http://www.lib.tpu.ru/fulltext/c/2012/C21/184.pdf |
| Format: | Electronic Book Chapter |
| KOHA link: | https://koha.lib.tpu.ru/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=238533 |
| Physical Description: | 1 файл(662 Кб) |
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| Summary: | Заглавие с экрана Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in Russia Federation from 2010 to 2065. This research describes the basic method, published in 1992 by Lee and Carter for long-run forecasts of the level and age pattern of mortality, that based on a combination of statistical time series methods and a simple approach to dealing with the age distribution of mortality. The model describes the log of a time series of age-specific death rates as the sum of an independent of time age-specific component and another component that is the product of a time-varying parameter reflecting the general level of mortality. Age-specific component represents velocity of mortality variance at each age when the general level of mortality changes. The model is fit to historical data. |